The year 2026 has brought a brutal reminder that food security is intricately related to energy, shipping routes, industrial capacity and geopolitical exposure. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy markets and increased concern about the Strait of Hormuz, a route that matters not only for oil and gas, but ammonia, urea and phosphate-based fertilizers. The International Fertilizer Association warned that Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain together accounted in 2024 for 23 percent of global ammonia trade, 34 percent of global urea trade and 18 percent of global ammoniated phosphate trade. The implications are serious for Sub-Saharan Africa. The region imports approximately 90 percent of its mineral fertilizers, leaving farmers exposed to exchange-rate pressure, shipping disruption, supplier concentration and sudden global price movements. The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices could rise sharply in 2026, with a projected 31 percent increase driven largely by urea costs. This is not simply a commercial challenge. It is a food security and sovereignty problem in which market access, logistics and risk increasingly shape national policy space.
Fertilizer sovereignty should not mean autarky or the rejection of global trade. It should mean reducing unnecessary vulnerability. Africa needs a more resilient system that combines imported fertilizers where needed with local blending, better soil testing, organic amendments, legumes, composting, biofertilizers, regional logistics and, over the longer term, low-carbon ammonia production. The aim is not to abandon nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), but to use them more intelligently and depend less blindly on distant supply chains with rules, prices and risks largely set elsewhere. Most synthetic nitrogen is produced through the Haber-Bosch process and depends heavily on natural gas. When energy markets tighten, nitrogen fertilizer becomes more expensive. When shipping routes are threatened, availability becomes less predictable.
African farmers face a dangerous combination of higher prices, uncertain delivery and limited public capacity to cushion the shock. The issue for African farmers, already operating on narrow margins, is not only whether fertilizer is available on the global market, but whether it can reach the farm gate at prices that make agronomic and commercial sense. Recent reporting cites Yara, on of the world’s largest fertilizer companies, warning that urea prices had risen by roughly 60 to 70 percent amid the Middle East crisis, with African importers among the most exposed. In countries where fertilizer use is already low, further price increases can quickly translate into lower application, weaker yields and greater food import dependence. This dependency is unsustainable. The African Union’s 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan recognised the continent needs an integrated soil fertility management approach that combines efficient mineral and organic fertilizers, improved seeds, water-use efficiency and better soil health practices. This is the right starting point because Africa’s challenge is not simply too little fertilizer. It is poor access, poor targeting, weak extension, limited soil diagnostics, low-quality inputs, thin rural markets and fragile logistics that prevent farmers and governments from responding efficiently to external shocks.
Africa must look more seriously at its own soil, biomass and urban waste streams without romanticising organic substitutes. Sub-Saharan Africa generates vast quantities of agricultural residues including cassava peels, maize stover, rice husks, cereal straw, legume by-products and animal manure.International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates substantial agricultural residue potential across Sub-Saharan Africa, but acknowledges effective mobilisation depends on overcoming practical barriers around collection, aggregation, transport, storage, processing, finance and supply-chain coordination.
Biochar, compost, manure and bio-stimulants can improve soil structure, water retention and nutrient-use efficiency; especially when used with modest but well-targeted mineral fertilizer. They should not be sold as miracle replacements for NPK. The practical goal is to stretch every bag of fertilizer further, reduce nutrient losses and rebuild soil organic matter in ways that can be measured, verified and trusted by farmers, buyers and financiers. Leguminous crops such as cowpea, pigeon pea, soybean and groundnut can help farmers reduce pressure on synthetic nitrogen by fixing atmospheric nitrogen through symbiotic relationships with rhizobia. These crops are not complete substitutes for urea, but they are practical complements that improve soil fertility, diversify diets and support farm incomes when used in rotations, intercrops or mixed farming systems. The most realistic approach is to combine legumes with soil testing, rhizobial inoculants where appropriate, compost, manure, targeted fertilizer use and better agronomic advice.
Africa’s towns and cities can also contribute, but only if circular systems are properly managed. Food waste, market waste, crop residues, animal manure and treated faecal sludge can be converted into compost, pellets, bio-slurry or other safe soil amendments. A 2024 GIZ soil fertility toolkit estimates food and green waste from urban centres in Sub-Saharan Africa could produce between 50,000 and 500,000 tons of compost per year, depending on the city and system. This requires waste separation, treatment facilities, contaminant control, quality testing, certification and clear public-health standards that remain underdeveloped, unevenly enforced or poorly financed in many urban waste systems across the continent. Without these systems, circular fertilizer will remain informal, inconsistent and difficult to scale or defend as a credible input within regulated food and export value chains.
The export opportunity should be framed carefully. European and North American markets are moving toward more demanding standards on sustainability, traceability, chemical residues and nutrient management. The European Commission’s Farm to Fork Strategy aims to reduce nutrient losses from organic and mineral fertilizers by at least 50 percent by 2030, while ensuring no deterioration in soil fertility, a shift expected to reduce overall fertilizer use by at least 20 percent. This does not mean African farmers will automatically earn a green premium by using less fertilizer. Certification, traceability, buyer relationships, logistics and proof of compliance matter. U.S. organic sales reached US$76.6 billion in 2025 and grew faster than the wider marketplace, but access to that market depends on standards, documentation and reliable supply. For African exporters, the opportunity is real, but it is practical rather than rhetorical: soil testing, residue control, digital records, farmer aggregation and credible certification can turn better soil management into stronger market access. This is where fertilizer policy becomes part of a broader governance shift. Standards that appear voluntary can become effectively mandatory when they determine access to buyers, finance, insurance and premium markets. African producers not only need better agronomy; they requires systems capable of producing credible evidence that inputs, residues, soil practices and environmental claims can withstand external scrutiny.
Fertilizer sovereignty requires infrastructure, not slogans. Morocco and Western Sahara together hold approximately 70 percent of known global phosphate rock reserves, according to USGS estimates; however, much of Sub-Saharan Africa remains dependent on imported finished fertilizer products. The strategic gap is not only geological, but industrial, logistical and financial. Africa needs more regional blending plants, storage capacity, rural distribution networks, working capital for importers and agro-dealers, quality control systems and laboratories to match fertilizer recommendations to actual soil conditions.The African Union’s 2024 Nairobi Declaration calls for local production and blending of mineral fertilizers using locally available raw materials, stronger research on inorganic and organic fertilizers, incentives for recycling organic resources and opportunities for decentralised, low-carbon and circular fertilizer production. This is a practical agenda. Governments and other relevant stakeholders could prioritise soil laboratories, anti-counterfeit enforcement, port and corridor logistics, regional procurement, farmer credit and extension services that explain what to apply, when to apply it and why. These investments would strengthen Africa’s capacity to negotiate with markets rather than merely comply with them. Laboratories, certification systems, digital records and trusted advisory services are not just technical tools; they are part of the institutional infrastructure through which countries prove quality, reduce transaction costs and avoid exclusion from increasingly regulated value chains.
A longer-term pathway may lie in green hydrogen and green ammonia, particularly for countries with strong renewable-energy resources. However, this is an industrial strategy, not a near-term fertilizer security solution. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that low-emissions hydrogen still faces high costs, slow project delivery, limited infrastructure and weak final investment decisions. Green ammonia could eventually reduce dependence on imported natural gas, but only if African countries build domestic fertilizer value chains rather than simply exporting green molecules to richer markets. Africa cannot build food security on a foundation of imported gas, distant factories and fragile shipping routes. The Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan adopted at the Nairobi summit in 2024 provides a useful policy framework. The Middle East crisis gives it sharper urgency.
Fertilizer sovereignty means giving farmers reliable access to the right inputs at the right price, while rebuilding and preserving the soil systems that make those inputs work. It means combining mineral fertilizers with organic amendments, legumes, composting, soil testing, regional blending, better logistics and credible market standards. It also means recognising that food security is now part of strategic autonomy. This autonomy depends increasingly on the ability to meet, shape and verify the standards through which markets allocate risk and reward. Africa has the minerals, biomass, sunlight and biological diversity to reduce its exposure. The task is to convert these assets into practical systems that farmers can actually use – and markets, financiers and regulators can recognise as credible.
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