THE BEST GAMES TO BET
JETS at TITANS
1 p.m., Jets by 4 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jets are better than they looked in San Francisco, which couldn’t have been worse. The Titans are what they are. Will Levis could be the worst starting quarterback in the league right now and should be dead meat for what should be an angry Jets defense. Nevertheless, go easy here. This is a terrible situation for the Jets and they may have trouble covering. It’s not just a short week followed by another travel day. It’s a long flight back from the West Coast followed by more travel. For us, it’s a very tentative lean. The best play may be under the total. The Jets’ defense should rebound while, on the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers is talking about shortening the game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
GIANTS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Commanders by 2 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Brian Daboll is now the favorite as the first NFL coach to be fired and if Daniel Jones’ play doesn’t pick up here, he might be the first starting QB benched. Luckily for both, Jones has owned the Commanders with a 5-1-1 record against them. Washington’s rookie QB Jayden Daniels is the real deal. Talent-wise, he has it all over Jones. But he’s still adjusting to the NFL and is being asked to carry the offense while getting into shootouts with opponents. The Commanders’ defense stinks and while new head coach Dan Quinn was able to shut down the Giants as defensive coordinator of the Cowboys, he doesn’t have the same personnel in D.C. The one Giants bright spot last week was rookie WR Malik Nabers, who used to catch passes from Daniels at LSU. He’ll be looking to outshine his old buddy. Perhaps the safer bet is to take the over with a relatively low total. These two defenses are among the worst in football and neither team should have any problem getting into the 20s.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the over.
COLTS at PACKERS
1 p.m., Colts by 3 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: Maybe the NFL will think twice about money grabs in exotic locales with the kind of slip and slide fields that put down Jordan Love. His injury flipped the line with Malik Willis now under center, making Lambeau Field a far cozier road venue for the Colts. Saquon Barkley ran all over this Packers front and the Colts figure to heap a lot on Jonathan Taylor’s back and let him pound it behind Indy’s grinding O-line with Anthony Richardson and his strong arm taking his shots downfield. Willis has made three previous career starts and has yet to throw a TD against three interceptions. After facing C.J. Stroud last week, they’ll be able to load up against the run and force Willis to beat them. Between Indy’s expected game plan and the Packers’ offensive situation, it’s a clear under bet.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the under.
BROWNS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jags by 3 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jaguars played well enough to win their opener in Miami (a Travis Etienne goal line fumble reversed momentum) and should handle a Browns team that looked far worse in its loss. Cleveland has big problems with Deshaun Watson. It’s clear his arm strength has diminished since early in his career, and with Nick Chubb still out he must take on even more responsibility. As of Monday, he’s facing new sexual assault charges that he denies. It’s a distraction he doesn’t need on top of losing his father and a friend last week. The Jags struggled to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but won’t be threatened here. Cleveland’s defense is its saving grace, but it was far less effective away from home last year. Trevor Lawrence should pick up where Dak Prescott left off.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jags and the under.
CHARGERS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Chargers by 6 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Forget about the over-reaction theory in this one. There is always a team to fade on a weekly basis and that team is the Panthers. They were dead from the opening dynamic kickoff against the Saints and they’ll be going the rest of the season without their best defensive player, DT Derrick Brown. Any expectations that Bryce Young would make strides in his second year were dashed in the dome and it doesn’t get any easier this week against a fast-flowing defense that dominated the Raiders. Joey Bosa figures to be in Young’s grill all day, while the offense has taken on a physical edge under Jim Harbaugh. He has his team believing after it went stale under Brandon Staley and the momentum should carry through against a demoralized foe.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
49ERS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Niners by 5 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: No one looked better than the Niners in their mauling of the Jets. But this is a classic spot for a letdown, somewhat beat up, traveling on a short week to Minneapolis, where they were upset last year, and looking ahead to their arch-rival Rams next week. Christian McCaffrey will probably sit this one out again and we don’t see Jordan Mason having the kind of field day he had against the Jets, especially with the injury situation on the O-line. Sam Darnold riddled the Giants but can he follow up against a much better defense? With Aaron Jones balancing out the attack, he doesn’t have to be great.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
BENGALS at CHIEFS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 5 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The line jumped after the Bengals flopped against the Patriots, no doubt an over-reaction. As mistake-prone as the Bengals were against the Patriots, we expect a bounce back against a team that will have their full attention. Joe Burrow, for his career, is 15-1 ATS as an underdog of three or more points and he has never been intimidated at Arrowhead Stadium. Four of the last five game between the teams have been decided by a field goal.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
STEELERS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Steelers by 3, 36 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos’ defense almost pulled things out in Seattle last week. It should have an easier time against the Steelers, with Russell Wilson unable to play against his former team with a calf injury. Led by T.J. Watt, the Steelers totally shut down a predictable Falcons offense that sheltered Kirk Cousins in the pistol and shotgun. We will see much more variation from Sean Payton here. With Justin Fields running the offense, Pittsburgh failed to score a TD in Atlanta last week and the points will be just as hard to come by as the Steelers could be without three starters on their offensive line. The altitude will be a factor. Visiting teams have historically had trouble in the early weeks of the season when teams are not yet in football shape.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
BEARS at TEXANS
8:20 p.m., Texans by 6 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: Caleb Williams was shaky in his debut as the Bears were able to slip past the Titans in the fourth quarter. Chicago’s total yards were the lowest for any winning team since 2019. It will not get easier in Williams’ first road game against the Texans’ aggressive defense. They will not allow him to get away with some of the throws he made in college, and he may have to match throws with C.J. Stroud. The question mark for Houston backers is that the Bears’ defense and special teams are very good, and both of those units tend to travel. Both teams featuring top tier defenses and stand alone, prime time games tend to be played closer to the vest. That spells under for us.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
FALCONS at EAGLES
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Eagles by 6 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: As powerful and balanced as the Eagles offense looked in Brazil, and as feeble as the Falcons looked behind Kirk Cousins, this line, which started at 3 ½, could be a classic over-reaction to Week 1 results. Cousins has been around the block and has bounced back before. He won’t have T.J. Watt staring him down. He’ll have a vulnerable Eagles secondary to pick on with above-average offensive weapons. One thing lost in the Falcons’ opening day flop was that their defense did not give up a touchdown to the Steelers. They’ve got a lot more talent up front than the Packers had. As for Philly’s home field advantage, the Eagles are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games at the Linc. This number is too high and the total too low. Count on a tight, low-scoring game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BUCS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 7, 51 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The advice is to bet over the total, sit back and watch the offensive fireworks. Baker Mayfield, reborn in Tampa, looks as though he is in complete synchronization with his new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. Detroit’s defense is still its Achilles heel and Dan Campbell’s game plan every week is to open things up and go for broke. That will be easier against Tampa’s beat-up secondary, which could be without Josh Hayes, Zyon McCollum and Antoine Winfield Jr. Picking the side is trickier. The Bucs are better than they were last year when they lost twice to the Lions. Jared Goff didn’t look great against the Rams but his running game was dominant. It’s a coin flip and a Bucs lean.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Bucs and the over.
BEST OF THE REST
SEAHAWKS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Seahawks by 3 ½, 38
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
RAIDERS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 9 ½, 41 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
SAINTS at COWBOYS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 6 ½, 45 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
RAMS at CARDINALS
4:05 p.m., Cardinals by 1 ½, 49
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the over.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Colts. No love for Pack here.
LAST WEEK: 8-7-1, 10-6 over/under
BEST BETS: 1-0
